US New Tenant Rent Index Shows Sharp Decline: The Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent Index tracks rent changes for new leases and may offer a timelier view of rent inflation than the broader index, which includes new and continuing leases. Shelter inflation – measured as Owners’ Equivalent Rent in the Consumer Price Index – is likely headed lower.
US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): What If Owners’ Equivalent Rent Were Replaced by Market Rents? The shelter component of CPI, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), is based on what a homeowner would pay to rent their own home. But what if we replaced these estimates with actual market rents? See below.
US Consumer Spending Is Slowing: The personal consumption component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the second quarter. Despite accelerating from the first quarter’s 0.5% pace, the combined growth over the first half of the year marks the slowest six-month stretch since 2020.
US Housing – More Sellers Than Buyers: A growing gap has emerged between homebuyers and sellers, with over a half a million more sellers than buyers.
US Student Loan Delinquencies Surge: Student loan delinquencies have been rising since the start of the year, following the end of the government’s pandemic-era payment pause.
US Wage Gains Leave Lowest Earners Behind: Wage growth for the lowest-paid workers in the US slowed to +3.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace in seven years. Meanwhile, top earners saw wages rise by +4.7%, while the overall workforce experienced +4.3% wage growth.
Chinese Small-Cap Equities & the Australian Dollar: Chinese small-cap equities have historically shown a strong correlation with the Australian dollar (AUD). If the rally in Chinese equities persists, it could signal continued support for the AUD.
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Groupthink is bad, especially at investment management firms. Brandywine Global therefore takes special care to ensure our corporate culture and investment processes support the articulation of diverse viewpoints. This blog is no different. The opinions expressed by our bloggers may sometimes challenge active positioning within one or more of our strategies. Each blogger represents one market view amongst many expressed at Brandywine Global. Although individual opinions will differ, our investment process and macro outlook will remain driven by a team approach.
