3Q 2025
September 29, 2025
Downside Risks to Growth
While the global economy has remained surprisingly resilient, a variety of factors could slow US growth further and weigh on the dollar. Our experts share their outlooks for the economy and financial markets in the last quarter of the year.
September 17, 2025
Curveballs: Mexico’s Bond Market Shines in 2025
Mexico’s government bond market has delivered some of the strongest returns in the global bond market this year, in both local and dollar terms, reflecting resilient demand and attractive yields.
September 10, 2025
Curveballs: US Labor and Construction Activity
Construction spending declined year-over-year in July, marking one of the steepest drops since the 2008 financial crisis and the sixth consecutive monthly decrease. At the same time, construction employment has fallen for three straight months, the longest streak since 2012.
September 3, 2025
Curveballs: September 3, 2025
For the first time in almost 50 years, Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is higher than US Core CPI, excluding two periods of sales tax hikes. Japan’s core inflation has spent most of the past three years meaningfully above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
August 28, 2025
Powerful Tailwinds Keep Europe Growth Momentum on Course
Despite the significant threat of tariffs, Europe has shown surprising economic resilience. Structural forces, including monetary and fiscal support, have overcome cyclical headwinds for now.
August 20, 2025
Curveballs: Tariff and Shifting Cost Dynamics
Just a third of manufacturers passed the full burden on to customers, while service firms were more likely to do so. A sizable share of manufacturers absorbed at least part of the cost.
August 13, 2025
Curveballs: August 13, 2025
The Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent Index tracks rent changes for new leases and may offer a timelier view of rent inflation than the broader index, which includes new and continuing leases.
August 6, 2025
Curveballs: US Debt and Funding
Expenditures have notably increased as a share of GDP, while revenue has remained largely unchanged.
July 30, 2025
Curveballs: US Housing
The pace of price cuts has picked up recently, potentially pressuring sales prices in the second half of the year.
July 23, 2025
Curveballs: China – Stability in Choppy Air
China’s producer prices fell 3.6% year-over-year in June, the steepest drop since July 2023. Sluggish domestic demand, persistent overcapacity, and intensifying price competition continue to exert downward pressure.
July 16, 2025
Curveballs: Soft Patch in US Labor Is Here
Private sector employment declined in June for the first time since early 2023, pulling the 3-month growth rate down to its slowest pace since August 2020.
July 1, 2025
Mid-Year Outlook: Global Growth Converges
With the US economy slowing, a convergence in global growth is expected. Our experts discuss the factors that may impact the economy and financial markets in the second half of the year.
2Q 2025
June 24, 2025
Tariffs Shift Asian Exports
Headline exports appear deceptively resilient amid frontloading efforts to avoid higher tariffs, but incoming payback effects and growing risks could result in slowing Asian growth.
June 3, 2025
A Glimmer in the Outlook for Gilts
UK gilt yields are high based on a number of factors and compared to developed market peers. However, we see several factors that are likely to push yields lower, creating opportunity.
May 29, 2025
Bigger Yard, Higher Fence?
The interplay between policy-driven trade realignments, cyclical relative growth shifts, structural capital flow adjustments, and relative currency valuations could open new avenues for alpha generation in emerging markets.
May 15, 2025
Another Headwind to Growth
As federal student loan borrowers transition out of forbearance into repayment, delinquencies and defaults may rise and have spillover effects on consumer credit and consumer spending.
May 6, 2025
In this Game of Attrition, Who Blinks First?
The US-China tariff war has escalated into a game of attrition. Both sides face consequences but neither appears willing to concede. The situation is fraught with geopolitical and economic ramifications and implications for investors.
April 28, 2025
Surveys Flash Warning on US Labor Market
Regional Federal Reserve surveys are now flashing early warning signs for the US labor market. The shift could signal weaker job growth ahead.
April 22, 2025
Germany’s Fiscal Transformation
Germany’s incoming leader Friedrich Merz quickly passed a massive fiscal package, representing a seismic shift for the country and a potential turning point for the eurozone.
April 10, 2025
Dislocations Create Opportunities in High Yield
Extreme market dislocations in recent weeks call for risk mitigation but not capitulation in US high yield. Opportunities are being created within this attractive and resilient asset class.
April 7, 2025
Facing Down the Dollar Bear
This year’s sharp rise in uncertainty should be a boon for the safe-haven US dollar. Yet, the dollar is not behaving as expected. Why has the dollar sold off and is further depreciation likely?
1Q 2025
March 26, 2025
Several Paths May Drive Euro Resurgence
Recent developments in the US and Europe suggest a regional growth convergence may be underway. This regime shift should favor the euro.
March 13, 2025
Changing Prospects for the Yen
As the Bank of Japan addresses Japan’s inflation problem, the undervalued yen stands to benefit. And the safe-haven currency could see an added boost amid rising uncertainty in risk assets.
March 3, 2025
ECB Ekes Out Better Lending Data
Eurozone bank lending data has been encouraging since the ECB started easing. Risks remain, but a return to more normal lending levels could signal optimism for growth in the region.
February 25, 2025
Chart of the Moment: Higher Hurdle for US Growth
A reflationary backdrop and other factors should bode well for global growth, and some previous laggards could surprise positively. The US, however, may have a higher hurdle to clear.
February 11, 2025
Trees Do Not Grow to the Sky
Global value investors are facing down two extremes: frenzied US stock market momentum and a large valuation premium for US stocks versus the rest of the world not seen in 30 years.
January 30, 2025
Chart of the Moment: Small Companies’ Big Impact on Labor Market
Despite strong job gains over the past year, hiring has diverged between larger and smaller US companies. However, signs suggest small firms could be poised for job growth, dispelling any notions of labor market weakness.
January 22, 2025
Year of the Snake: Lower for Longer Chinese Yields
The Year of the Snake brings new promise to China. However, the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. Addressing structural challenges, policy efficacy, and geopolitical risks will be crucial for achieving sustainable growth.
4Q 2024
December 23, 2024
Shifting Tide Buoys High Yield
Strong fundamentals and rising demand for US high yield have been driving recent performance, even with tight credit spreads. These trends likely will continue to buoy the asset class in 2025.
December 17, 2024
Seizing the Opportunity in Agency MBS
Agency mortgage-backed securities have presented a compelling valuation anomaly for the past few years. In 2025, several dynamics should continue to support the opportunity in this asset class.
November 20, 2024
Next Chapter for US Election Story
With the US election outcome determined, the focus is now on the personnel and policies that are likely to shape the new narrative.
November 4, 2024
When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It
South African assets rallied following May voting. Could the election, which ushered in a new coalition government, be the catalyst to drive sweeping change and move the country along a brighter economic path?
October 30, 2024
Election Promises Meet Reality
With the US election days away, looking past heightened emotions and uncertainty to the potential economic and market impacts can be difficult. But election rhetoric eventually meets reality.
October 23, 2024
Brazil Regaining Focus
Most central banks around the world are cutting rates, but Brazil recently initiated a hiking cycle. A worsening perception of fiscal policy has impacted asset prices, the currency, and inflation expectations.
October 18, 2024
Chart of the Moment: The Key to Unlocking Gilts’ Rebound
UK gilts are beginning to reverse their recent underperformance as wage growth and inflation improve. However, one major obstacle may remain in the way of gilts’ rebound.
October 1, 2024
Is This China’s “Do Whatever It Takes” Moment?
Facing a multitude of challenges to growth, China unveiled a long list of stimulus measures with hints of more to come. Will it make a difference?
3Q 2024
September 27, 2024
Countdown to Election Day
In this pivotal year for voters globally, the US stands out as the most significant election, with the potential for material policy changes and macroeconomic and investment implications.
September 19, 2024
Looking for Value, Look Beyond US Equities
For equity investors, looking beyond one of the most expensive stock markets in the world may offer better value and a world of opportunity.
September 13, 2024
Hard or Soft Landing, a Consistent Story for High Yield
An analysis of past Federal Reserve easing cycles and subsequent economic outcomes tells a story of consistency and stability for US high yield.
September 5, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Best Time to Hold Long-Term Bonds
With Federal Reserve easing on the horizon, what is the best time to hold long-duration U.S. Treasuries?
August 21, 2024
The Yen Will Get There, Eventually
The Japanese yen’s cheapness has been compelling but carry-trade volatility and other factors have made holding the currency difficult. Still, we believe there is a case for being long the yen.
August 6, 2024
Unwinding Trades Creates Market Turbulence
As Head of Global Macro Strategy Paul Mielczarski explains, two shocks have been reverberating across markets concurrently in the last few weeks.
August 1, 2024
Decoding the Reform Plans from China’s Third Plenum
Markets hoping for major reforms from China’s Third Plenum were disappointed. But some of the meeting’s messages signal gradual reforms that may change China’s growth path if implemented well.
July 23, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Behind U.S. High Yield’s Impressive Resilience
High yield risk may be compared to equities or core fixed income. However, a look at performance reveals high yield often has a resilience and risk-adjusted return potential all its own.
July 12, 2024
UK Update: Life under Labour
The UK will once again experience life under Labour. Given the party’s commanding election win and proposed policies, how may gilts and the pound fare under the new regime?
July 9, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Trade Proposals in Perspective
The U.S. election could introduce vast policy changes on several fronts. While fiscal policy and taxes may be at the forefront, proposed trade policies could have massive implications.
2Q 2024
June 27, 2024
Mid-Year Outlook: Sailing through Uncharted Waters
Inflation may be sailing toward trend, but uncertainties remain on the horizon. Our experts discuss the factors that may impact the economy and financial markets in the second half of the year.
June 13, 2024
Escape Velocity: Japan’s Drift Toward Sustained Inflation
While many believe Japan cannot escape the gravitational pull of deflation, some emerging data suggests inflation might just be accelerating again.
June 5, 2024
Moving Unsold Mountains: Is China’s Property Rescue Plan a Game Changer?
Will a new rescue plan finally push China’s property sector toward recovery? Portfolio Manager Tracy Chen looks at the package’s features and potential economic and investment implications.
May 31, 2024
Insurance Premiums and the Rising Cost of Homeownership
As catastrophic weather events become more common, the U.S. housing market may look to other countries for solutions to address increasing risks and price pressures from rising insurance premiums.
May 20, 2024
Mission Accomplished, Chile?
After Chile’s money supply and consumption surged post-pandemic, the central bank took aggressive aim at inflation through rates. Did policymakers hit their target?
May 16, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Not All Jobs Are Equal
U.S. hiring has remained robust, but are all job gains created equal? Recent underlying shifts in hiring may be supportive of the Federal Reserve’s stance on rate cuts after all.
April 30, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Will China’s Two-Track Economy Hit a Dead End?
China is running a dual-track economy. One side is focused on industrial policy while the other is dominated by the property market. These forces may further extend deflation risks.
April 22, 2024
A Shortage of Planes: Higher Prices for Travelers and Certain Stocks
Aircraft production shortfalls are coming up against growing demand for air travel. Aircraft lessors and premier airline franchises that can capitalize on constrained industry supply may benefit.
April 16, 2024
The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets
Over the last decade, the U.S. has seen a massive shift in foreign investment into the U.S. That leaves trillions of dollars dependent on continued U.S. economic and market outperformance.
1Q 2024
March 28, 2024
Riding the Convexity Wave in Securitized Credit
Four areas within securitized credit offer interesting convexity opportunities or anomalies in the current rate environment.
March 7, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Nonbanks Step Up to Window Left by Banks
Banks’ increased focus on liquidity, capital, and regulatory requirements following the regional banking crisis leaves a window of opportunity for nonbank financials.
February 22, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Commercial Real Estate’s Surprising Rally
Despite frequent headlines on the office sector’s dire outlook, commercial mortgage-backed securities have rallied this year. What is behind their surprising performance?
February 1, 2024
Rate Decreases: Be Careful What You Wish For?
We analyzed U.S. equity performance following monetary easing and found that equity prices tend to fall when the Federal Reserve lowers rates if the yield curve was recently inverted.
January 24, 2024
Chart of the Moment: Too Soon to Celebrate New Year for Chinese Growth
China’s weak growth has spurred widespread global concern, and recent money supply trends suggest the country’s economy is not out of the woods yet.
January 16, 2024
German Growth Engine Could Be Running Out of Gas
Once an industrial juggernaut, the German economy has stalled. Is Germany’s lethargy merely cyclical, relieved by easier monetary policy, or are more worrying structural and endemic forces at play?
January 4, 2024
Responsibility as a Comparative Advantage
Policy developments, economic opportunities, and fiscal conditions in Brazil and Indonesia serve as examples of how countries can manage ambitious agendas.
