Slump in Construction Sector: Construction spending declined year-over-year in July, marking one of the steepest drops since the 2008 financial crisis and the sixth consecutive monthly decrease. At the same time, construction employment has fallen for three straight months, the longest streak since 2012.
Hard Hats Stay Put - Construction Quits Plunge: The construction quits rate, an indicator of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs, has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. High quits typically reflect worker confidence; low quits suggest growing caution.
Labor Growth Engines Stall: Health care and education have been major contributors to US employment growth over the past three years. However, the latest JOLTS data reveals a sharp drop in job openings in both sectors over the past two months.
Trouble Ahead for Healthcare Employment? Healthcare job openings have declined (see previous chart), and with the notable slowdown in Medicare spending, healthcare employment may now be at risk.
There Are More Unemployed People than Job Openings
Millions Want Jobs but Aren’t Job Hunting: There are now 6.2 million Americans who are not part of the labor force but say they want a job. Although these individuals aren't actively job hunting and therefore aren't classified as part of the labor force, they still express a desire to work.
Troubling Rise in Long-Term Unemployment: Long-term unemployment rose in August to its highest level since late 2021. The share of Americans jobless for over 27 weeks climbed to 26%+, marking a significant increase over the past 18 months.
Weakness in Employment Agency Equities Suggest Job Openings May Decline Further
Non-Residential Construction Declines: Data center construction spending remains strong (see next chart), but overall non-residential construction is declining as CHIPS Act-related semiconductor projects are completed. So far, there’s no evidence that tariffs or President Trump’s trade policies are driving new manufacturing investment.
Data Center Builds Set to Overtake Office Projects: Data center construction is on track to surpass general office construction for the first time in the coming months.
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